Four years ago, Rudy Giuliani was leading the race for the Republican presidential nomination with 25 percent of the support of Republicans and independents who leaned Republican.
National polling by Gallup for the week of Nov. 30-Dec. 2, 2007, showed a little-known governor from Arkansas beginning to catch Giuliani. Mike Huckabee at 16 percent was just ahead of Sen. John McCain and former senator-turned-TV-prosecutor Fred Thompson, both at 15 percent.
Unlike the surge-and-fade dynamics of the 2011 race for the Republican presidential nomination, “America’s Mayor” Giuliani led the field from January 2007 right up to Iowa’s first-in-the-nation precinct caucuses.
Although Cain’s numbers have held up in a number of polls despite allegation of sexual harassment and a revelation of a 13-year affair, the intensity of Republican’s support for Cain is waning.
No doubt that’s seen as good news by the Gingrich camp that saw its Positive Intensity Score fall to 1 percent earlier this year.
Gingrich may want to play up his 20 percent ranking on the survey, but the dark lining to his silver cloud is that at its peak, his number is just two-thirds of Cain’s high point of 34 percent.
Cain’s Gallup Positive Intensity Score based on Gallup polling has fallen to 9 percent. That’s better than former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum and 4.5 times greater than Texas Rep. Ron Paul’s support.
The Positive Intensity Scores of three Republican — Rick Santorum, Ron Paul and Jon Huntsman — have been below 20 all year, and are significantly lower now than they were at points earlier in the year.
More striking is the fact that despite Gingrich’s surge, his Positive Intensity Score is just two-thirds of Cain’s peak. He topped out at 34 percent while Gingrich is leading the field, but at just 20 positive intensity score rating.
Oh yeah, if you’re keeping track, at this time four years ago, Hillary Clinton had a 34 percent to 29 percent lead over Barack Obama.
On the calendar:
Michele Bachmann, 1 p.m., University of Northern Iowa’s presidential candidate education forum at 1 p.m. Nov. 30 in Bengtson Auditorium in Russell Hall; 3:30 p.m., town hall meeting, 2020 W. Bremer Ave., Waverly; 6:30 p.m., town hall meeting, 1000 Blunt St., Charles City
Newt Gingrich, 6 p.m., “Slice the Deficit” pizza party hosted by Strong America Now, Pizza King, Council Bluffs
Newt Gingrich, 10 a.m., Nationwide Insurance and sign the Americans for Securing the Border’s Fence by a Date Certain Pledge, Nationwide Cafeteria, Des Moines; 2:45 p.m., Annual Meeting of the Iowa Association of Electric Cooperatives, West Des Moines; 7 p.m., Polk County Robb Kelley Victory Club, Johnston
Rick Santorum, 2 p.m., town hall, Sidney Senior Center; 5:30 p.m., Mid-America Center, 1 Arena Way, Council Bluffs
Rick Santorum, 9:30 a.m., town hall, Stoney Creek Inn, Sioux City; 12:30 p.m., town hall, 4 Brother’s Restaurant, Le Mars; 7:30 p.m., rally, Dordt College Campus Center, Sioux Center
Ron Paul, 1 p.m., employee meeting, Principal Financial Group, Des Moines; 4 p.m. , Boone Public Library; 7 p.m., Youth for Ron Paul, Great Hall, Iowa State Memorial Union, Ames
Ron Paul, 9 a.m., Webster City Fire Station; 1 p.m., Mason City High; 4 p.m., Waverly Public Library; 7 p.m., Youth for Ron Paul, University of Northern Iowa Maucker Union, Slife Ballroom, Cedar Falls
Ron Paul, 10 a.m., Fisher Community Center, Marshalltown
8 p.m., Des Moines Register/ABC News/Yahoo!/Republican Party of Iowa live presidential debate, Drake University
Fox News/ Republican Party of Iowa live presidential debate, Sioux City
America, Barack Obama, Bengtson Auditorium, Cedar Falls, Charles City, Dordt College Campus Center, Drake University, Fisher Community Center, Florida Attorney General Pam Bondi, Fred Thompson, Gallup, Georgia, Herman Cain, Hillary Clinton, Iowa, Iowa Association of Electric Cooperatives, Jon Huntsman, Le Mars, Marshalltown, Michele Bachmann, Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Pennsylvania, Polk County, Principal Financial Group, Rep. Ron Paul, Republican Jewish Coalition, Rick Perry, Rudy Giuliani, Sen. John McCain, Sen. Rick Santorum, Sioux City, Strong America, Texas, University of Northern Iowa, University of Northern Iowa Maucker Union, Waverly Public Library, Webster City, West Des Moines