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The Gazette KCRG
Posted November 30, 2011
What’s Ahead Nov. 30: Unsettled Republican field nothing new

Four years ago, Rudy Giuliani was leading the race for the Republican presidential nomination with 25 percent of the support of Republicans and independents who leaned Republican.

Rudy Giuliani

National polling by Gallup for the week of Nov. 30-Dec. 2, 2007, showed a little-known governor from Arkansas beginning to catch Giuliani. Mike Huckabee at 16 percent was just ahead of Sen. John McCain and former senator-turned-TV-prosecutor Fred Thompson, both at 15 percent.

Unlike the surge-and-fade dynamics of the 2011 race for the Republican presidential nomination, “America’s Mayor” Giuliani led the field from January 2007 right up to Iowa’s first-in-the-nation precinct caucuses.

Now it’s former House Speaker Newt Gingrich’s turn to surge and Georgia businessman Herman Cain’s turn to fade.

Newt Gingrich

Although Cain’s numbers have held up in a number of polls despite allegation of sexual harassment and a revelation of a 13-year affair, the intensity of Republican’s support for Cain is waning.

No doubt that’s seen as good news by the Gingrich camp that saw its Positive Intensity Score fall to 1 percent earlier this year.

Gingrich may want to play up his 20 percent ranking on the survey, but the dark lining to his silver cloud is that at its peak, his number is just two-thirds of Cain’s high point of 34 percent.

Cain’s Gallup Positive Intensity Score based on Gallup polling has fallen to 9 percent. That’s better than former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum and 4.5 times greater than Texas Rep. Ron Paul’s support.

The Positive Intensity Scores of three Republican — Rick Santorum, Ron Paul and Jon Huntsman — have been below 20 all year, and are significantly lower now than they were at points earlier in the year.

More striking is the fact that despite Gingrich’s surge, his Positive Intensity Score is just two-thirds of Cain’s peak. He topped out at 34 percent while Gingrich is leading the field, but at just 20 positive intensity score rating.

Hillary Clinton

Oh yeah, if you’re keeping track, at this time four years ago, Hillary Clinton had a 34 percent to 29 percent lead over Barack Obama.

On the calendar:

Nov. 30

Michele Bachmann, 1 p.m., University of Northern Iowa’s presidential candidate education forum at 1 p.m. Nov. 30 in Bengtson Auditorium in Russell Hall; 3:30 p.m., town hall meeting, 2020 W. Bremer Ave., Waverly; 6:30 p.m., town hall meeting, 1000 Blunt St., Charles City

Newt Gingrich, 6 p.m., “Slice the Deficit” pizza party hosted by Strong America Now, Pizza King, Council Bluffs

Dec. 1

Newt Gingrich, 10 a.m., Nationwide Insurance and sign the Americans for Securing the Border’s Fence by a Date Certain Pledge, Nationwide Cafeteria, Des Moines; 2:45 p.m., Annual Meeting of the Iowa Association of Electric Cooperatives, West Des Moines; 7 p.m., Polk County Robb Kelley Victory Club, Johnston

Dec. 3

Mitt Romney, Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, Rick Perry, Michele Bachmann, Ron Paul and Rick Santorum, presidential candidate forum hosted by Florida Attorney General Pam Bondi

Dec. 4:

Rick Santorum, 2 p.m., town hall, Sidney Senior Center; 5:30 p.m., Mid-America Center, 1 Arena Way, Council Bluffs

Dec. 5

Rick Santorum, 9:30 a.m., town hall, Stoney Creek Inn, Sioux City; 12:30 p.m., town hall, 4 Brother’s Restaurant, Le Mars; 7:30 p.m., rally, Dordt College Campus Center, Sioux Center

Dec. 7

Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, Jon Huntsman, Rick Perry, Michele Bachmann, Ron Paul and Rick Santorum, Republican Jewish Coalition, Washington

Dec. 8

Ron Paul, 1 p.m., employee meeting, Principal Financial Group, Des Moines; 4 p.m. , Boone Public Library; 7 p.m., Youth for Ron Paul, Great Hall, Iowa State Memorial Union, Ames

Dec. 9

Ron Paul, 9 a.m., Webster City Fire Station; 1 p.m., Mason City High; 4 p.m., Waverly Public Library; 7 p.m., Youth for Ron Paul, University of Northern Iowa Maucker Union, Slife Ballroom, Cedar Falls

Dec. 10

Ron Paul, 10 a.m., Fisher Community Center, Marshalltown

8 p.m., Des Moines Register/ABC News/Yahoo!/Republican Party of Iowa live presidential debate, Drake University

Dec. 15

Fox News/ Republican Party of Iowa live presidential debate, Sioux City

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