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The Gazette KCRG
Posted October 20, 2011
What’s Ahead: Who’s leading depends on what you measure

UPDATED: Herman Cain may be the flavor-of-the-month in the 2012 Republican presidential nomination race, but Texas Rep. Ron Paul is the one candidate who consistently polls in double-digits in Iowa, has received more itemized individual contributions from Iowans than any other candidate in the field, and has more endorsements from the state’s GOP central committee than any other candidate in the race, according to none other than Gov. Terry Branstad.

According to a Rasmussen Reports poll out this morning, Cain has now jumped to the front of the Republican pack in Iowa.

The telephone survey of Likely Iowa caucus-goers shows Cain is in front with 28 percent followed by former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney at 21 percent and Paul at 10 percent.

Herman Cain

Rep. Ron Paul

Paul also is the favorite to win the Jan. 3 Iowa precinct caucuses, according to The Iowa Independent’s panel of comprised of grassroots activists, state political reporters, consultants, academics and strategists.

One panelist said Paul is “the only candidate with an excited base and an excellent organization.” The challenge for Paul will to make sure all those enthusiastic college students come back from Christmas break in time to participate in the caucuses.

Questions persist about the depth of Paul’s support, but given the fractured nature of the GOP base, enthusiasm and organization could win the night come Jan. 3.

One thing is clear, Paul, who narrowly lost the Iowa Straw Poll two months ago, is getting more financial support from Iowans than any of his rivals. Granted, we’re not talking big bucks in terms of presidential campaigns, but Paul has received more money in itemized individual contributions from Iowa residents than his next closest competitor, Mitt Romney.

A Smart Politics analysis found that the Texas congressman has received $77,445 in itemized contributions from Iowa residents through the end of September. That’s 15 percent more than Romney’s $67,070 and the $31,038 Iowa native Michele Bachmann has collected from Iowans.

In fact, Smart Politics found Paul has netted more large-donor money from Iowans than Rick Perry, Cain, Rick Santorum, Newt Gingrich, Jon Huntsman, and Gary Johnson combined.

President Obama’s campaign has collected more than $198,000 from Iowans, the analysis found. Obama’s campaign reported 8,136 contributors from Iowa.

MItt Romney

Which Mitt: Ahead of Romney’s visit to the West Coast of Iowa today, the Iowa Democratic Party is asking, “Which Mitt will we see?”

Today, the Democratic National Committee released a new video in their “Which Mitt” series on Mitt Romney’s notorious flip flops.

So which Mitt will we see in Iowa on Thursday?  The Mitt who says tax cuts are critical for job creation or the Mitt who thinks the $1,500 payroll tax cut is a “little band-aid?” the IDP asks.

The Facts: Romney is running his own web video, “The Facts” to highlight the rising unemployment rate in Texas and Perry’s refusal to admit the facts.

The video ties Perry to President Obama with this comparison: “Incumbent politician, bad jobs record, won’t face the facts, sound familiar?”

The video ends by asking: “If Rick Perry and Barack Obama don’t think there’s a problem, how can they fix it?”

On the calendar:

  •   Mitt Romney will campaign in Sioux City, Treynor and Council Bluffs Oct. 20.
  •   Ron Paul will campaign in Iowa Oct. 21 and 22. He’ll celebrate homecoming with Youth for Ron Paul at 8 p.m. Oct. 21 at the University of Iowa Memorial Union Main Lounge, 125 N. Madison St., Iowa City.
  •   Rick Perry at a fundraiser for Iowa Rep. Jeff Kaufmann, Wilton, 1:30 p.m., Oct. 22.
  •   Michele Bachmann will visit Winterset and Creston Oct. 22.
  •   Iowa Faith & Freedom Coalition fall banquet at the Knapp Center at the Iowa State Fairgrounds. Check-in starts at 4:30 p.m. Scheduled to participate are Cain, Bachman, Perry, Newt Gingrich, Ron Paul and Rick Santorum
  •   Michele Bachmann will campaign in Osceola Oct. 23.
  •   Gingrich will be in Dubuque Oct. 24. No details yet.



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