Cindy Golding and Michele Bachmann

MARION – Presidential politics are muddying the waters for the Republican candidate in a Nov. 8 Linn County special election that could change the balance of power in the Iowa Senate.

Republican nominee Cindy Golding of rural Cedar Rapids is walking a fine line between welcoming assistance from the party’s 2012 presidential hopefuls and making clear that she’s not endorsing any of them at this time.

At a Marion appearance Oct. 5 with Ann Romney, whose husband, Mitt, is seeking the GOP presidential nomination, Golding tried to clear up her position – a position she said has been misrepresented by the media.

“I have to make something very clear because the news media has made a big deal out of it,” Golding said about suggestions that she rebuffed U.S. Rep. Michele Bachmann’s offer of assistance. When Bachmann was in Cedar Rapids Sept. 26 “I was taking care of business. I really was. I really have a business to run. So I was unable to meet with Ms. Bachmann.”

Likewise, Bachmann said nothing should be read into fact Golding didn’t appear with her.

“Nope. Not at all,” Bachmann said. “We wanted to try to help her raise money if we could, but her day’s events were already planned.”

Tim Hagle, an associate professor of political science at the University of Iowa, accepts that it was nothing more than a scheduling conflict. However, but there are reasons a local candidate in a special election might want to avoid getting caught up in the national political environment, “which can be hard to do in Iowa in the middle of caucus season.”

“The saying goes that ‘all politics is local,’ but local politics can certainly get caught up in state or national politics,” Hagle said, citing the recent example of a special election in New York for Rep. Anthony Weiner’s U.S. House seat.

That seemed to be the position initially taken by Golding, who will face Democrat Liz Mathis. The winner will represent Iowa Senate 18, which includes Marion, Fairfax, Palo, Hiawatha, Robbins, Alburnett, Center Point, Walker, Coggon, Prairieburg and part of Walford.

“Personally I like her but we have to figure out what is best for our district at this point,” Golding said prior to Bachmann’s campaign visit. “You know, Michele is a great national candidate, but I have to make sure nothing in the national politics interferes with Senate District 18.”

Accepting Bachmann’s support without endorsing is a safe strategy for Golding, according to Chris Larimer, who teaches political science at the University of Northern Iowa. If Golding allows Bachmann or any other presidential hopeful to campaign with her and Golding wins, that creates much-needed loyalty for that candidate heading into Iowa’s first-in-the-nation precinct caucuses.

Normally, a state level candidate would appreciate a well-known presidential candidate stumping for him or her, said Chris Larimer, who teaches political science at the University of Northern Iowa.

However, given the partisan makeup of the district – the 15,972 Republicans and 15,759 Democrats are outnumbered by 19,873 independent — the fact Senate 18 is a swing district and if Golding wins the Senate will be split 25-25, Larimer thinks Republicans have to be extremely careful to bring in only those candidates who mobilize the most support.

While Bachmann, who won the Iowa GOP Straw Poll in mid-August “may have fit the bill six weeks ago, she is clearly sliding in her support,” Larimer said.

“This may actually be one of those rare occasions where Bachmann needs Golding more than Golding needs Bachmann,” he said.

Endorsing Bachmann might limit Golding’s mobilization potential, Larimer said. On the other hand, “publicity without explicit endorsement can be useful, and leaves open the door for other candidates to mobilize other portions of the electorate that may not approve of a Bachmann endorsement.”

If a local candidate is seen as being aligned with a federal level candidate it could raise questions about things the presidential hopeful has said or done, Hagle said, such as the HPV vaccine issue in Bachmann’s case.

There are ways for the presidential hopefuls to help that are less public, but build good will with voters, Hagle said. That would include allowing staff members to help with the special election campaign or making get-out-the-vote calls.

Golding probably can have it both ways, Hagle said. Given the short timeframe of the special election, she can accept the help of the presidential hopefuls with no strings attached. That gives Golding the benefit of whatever resources and positive attention the presidential hopeful brings to her campaign.

Any presidential candidate willing to help out a fellow Republican in an important state legislative race with no quid pro quo “would likely be seen as a positive by most state Republicans even if they don’t otherwise support that candidate,” Hagle said.